Russia perceives itself to be in a state of conflict with NATO allies, although this has not yet escalated into direct military confrontation. This perception allows the Kremlin to allocate resources for conducting probing attacks on NATO defenses to assess vulnerabilities and boundaries.
In a parallel campaign across Europe, Russia has engaged in acts of sabotage, including targeting Polish railway lines, attempting to disrupt undersea cables in the Baltic Sea, and launching an increasingly aggressive campaign by the GRU to disrupt supply chains supporting Ukraine.
The Kremlin aims to raise the costs for NATO in supporting Ukraine, disrupt supply chains temporarily, and sow discord in Western nations. While Russia’s actions have not crossed the threshold for a NATO military response, its use of proxies makes attribution challenging.
Despite these efforts, the sabotage attacks lack coordination and do not always correspond to the level of support countries provide to Ukraine. For instance, Germany, France, and Poland, which provide significant military aid to Ukraine, have faced more physical attacks compared to the UK, despite the UK’s substantial support since 2022.
Russia has a keen interest in the UK, investing resources in surveillance and intelligence gathering, including recent incidents like the Yantar surveillance vessel in British waters. However, disruptions to Russian intelligence networks in Europe in 2022 have forced Russia to rely on local proxies, limiting coordination and effectiveness in attacks.
Although Russia faces challenges due to disrupted intelligence networks, the country is likely to adapt and enhance its strategies, posing a continued risk to non-military targets in Europe, including the UK.