Three major Canadian banks expressed optimistic views on the economy on Thursday, in stark contrast to the concerns raised by numerous small businesses dealing with the impacts of a trade war with the United States. Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bank, and CIBC released their financial results before the opening of the Toronto Stock Exchange. These banking giants collectively hold assets worth up to $6 trillion, giving them a unique perspective to assess the effects of tariffs due to their extensive consumer and business loan portfolios.
RBC CEO Dave McKay highlighted the resilience of the Canadian economy, pointing to positive trends in employment and GDP in the second quarter. He mentioned a low average effective tariff rate of six percent, with the majority of exports remaining duty-free. TD Bank CEO Raymond Chun referred to a potential investment “super cycle” in Canada, driven by government spending on infrastructure and defense projects. CIBC CEO Harry Culham expressed cautious confidence in the latter half of 2026, emphasizing the evolving trade environment.
A study by Oxford Economics for the Canadian American Business Council warned of potential job losses if the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) were to be eliminated. BMO Capital Markets predicted that the recent U.S. tariffs could reduce Canadian growth by half a percentage point, mainly impacting business confidence and investment. Canada’s major banks, including National Bank, lauded government initiatives and investment plans aimed at supporting the economy amid trade uncertainties.
Bank of Montreal and Scotiabank CEOs also shared views on managing the Canada-U.S. trade war. Despite trade tensions, Canadian bank stocks have remained strong on the Toronto Stock Exchange, with the iShares S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index ETF showing significant gains year-to-date.