The El Niño weather pattern is expected to strengthen through 2027, possibly becoming the most intense on record, raising the likelihood of extreme weather events next year, according to the World Meteorological Organization. Secretary-General Celeste Saulo mentioned at a press conference in Geneva that if the current trend continues, it could surpass anything observed in the past four decades of monitoring.
The UN weather agency indicated a nearly 100% certainty that El Niño will persist until February 2027, driven by unusually warm Pacific Ocean temperatures. This high level of confidence in the forecast is a first for the WMO. A powerful El Niño can significantly alter global rainfall and temperature patterns, leading to extreme weather phenomena such as typhoons.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized the unprecedented scale of El Niño’s impact, stating that the planet is experiencing uncharted warming waters. El Niño, characterized by periodic sea surface temperature increases in the eastern Pacific due to weakened trade winds, occurs naturally every two to seven years, lasting up to 12 months and causing severe weather fluctuations across Latin America.
This year’s El Niño has already influenced tropical commodity markets, triggering a severe food crisis in Central America’s Dry Corridor. The WMO predicts the phenomenon will peak by the end of this year but will continue into 2027, leaving a legacy of elevated global temperatures. Secretary-General Saulo highlighted the WMO’s enhanced preparedness and early warning initiatives to address the situation.
The organization expressed its commitment to collaborating with UN partners and the humanitarian system to provide essential climate data and insights for disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, health, energy, and water resources.