Keir Starmer has returned from his visit to the Far East, where he successfully negotiated important concessions with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Despite interference from Donald Trump, there were no significant issues during the high-stakes trip to Beijing, which will be a relief for No10. However, the focus in Downing Street is now shifting to domestic matters, particularly the upcoming by-election in Greater Manchester.
On February 26, voters in the historically safe Labour constituency of Gorton and Denton will choose their next MP following Andrew Gwynne’s resignation. The decision by Labour’s governing body to block Andy Burnham’s return to Westminster has raised concerns among some MPs, who worry that it could have negative repercussions.
One backbencher remarked, “If we lose the by-election, it will appear that Keir Starmer sacrificed a seat to prevent Andy Burnham’s re-entry, which won’t sit well.” Another MP expressed skepticism about retaining the seat, suggesting that it may be conceded to Reform or the Greens due to the blocking of Andy.
Despite concerns, some remain optimistic about Labour’s chances in the by-election. Labour MP Karl Turner, critical of the Government’s jury trial reforms, shared insights from conversations with deputy Labour leader Lucy Powell, who is on the ground in the constituency and believes the situation is favorable.
Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming by-election, mentioning Labour, Reform, the Greens, and the Workers’ Party as key players. He emphasized the unpredictability of the outcome given the unique circumstances of the constituency.
Another polling expert, Luke Tryl, identified the by-election as a three-way contest between Labour, Reform UK, and the Greens, all influenced by the presence of Nigel Farage. Tactical voting could play a crucial role in determining the winner, with strategic considerations affecting the outcome.
As voters navigate their choices to counter Reform’s influence, uncertainty looms over the by-election, with strategic voting strategies shaping the electoral landscape.